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  <front>
    <journal-meta><journal-id journal-id-type="publisher">JBJI</journal-id><journal-title-group>
    <journal-title>Journal of Bone and Joint Infection</journal-title>
    <abbrev-journal-title abbrev-type="publisher">JBJI</abbrev-journal-title><abbrev-journal-title abbrev-type="nlm-ta">J. Bone Joint Infect.</abbrev-journal-title>
  </journal-title-group><issn pub-type="epub">2206-3552</issn><publisher>
    <publisher-name>Copernicus Publications</publisher-name>
    <publisher-loc>Göttingen, Germany</publisher-loc>
  </publisher></journal-meta>
    <article-meta>
      <article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.5194/jbji-11-591-2026</article-id><title-group><article-title>External validation of the KLIC score and development  of a novel prediction model for debridement, antibiotics, and implant retention failure in prosthetic joint  infection: a multicentre cohort study</article-title><alt-title>External validation of the KLIC score and development of a novel prediction model</alt-title>
      </title-group>
      <contrib-group>
        <contrib contrib-type="author" corresp="no" rid="aff1">
          <name><surname>Zumbo</surname><given-names>Giulia</given-names></name>
          
        </contrib>
        <contrib contrib-type="author" corresp="no" rid="aff1">
          <name><surname>Martínez-Alemany</surname><given-names>Iris</given-names></name>
          
        </contrib>
        <contrib contrib-type="author" corresp="no" rid="aff1 aff2">
          <name><surname>Bravo-Ferrer</surname><given-names>Jose Maria</given-names></name>
          
        </contrib>
        <contrib contrib-type="author" corresp="no" rid="aff3">
          <name><surname>Nieto Diaz De Los Bernardos</surname><given-names>Isabel</given-names></name>
          
        </contrib>
        <contrib contrib-type="author" corresp="no" rid="aff4">
          <name><surname>Praena</surname><given-names>Julia</given-names></name>
          
        </contrib>
        <contrib contrib-type="author" corresp="no" rid="aff5">
          <name><surname>Del Arco</surname><given-names>Alfonso</given-names></name>
          
        </contrib>
        <contrib contrib-type="author" corresp="no" rid="aff6">
          <name><surname>Nuño</surname><given-names>Enrique</given-names></name>
          
        </contrib>
        <contrib contrib-type="author" corresp="no" rid="aff7">
          <name><surname>Corzo Delgado</surname><given-names>Juan Enrique</given-names></name>
          
        </contrib>
        <contrib contrib-type="author" corresp="no" rid="aff8">
          <name><surname>Brun</surname><given-names>Francisco</given-names></name>
          
        </contrib>
        <contrib contrib-type="author" corresp="no" rid="aff9">
          <name><surname>Natera</surname><given-names>Clara</given-names></name>
          
        </contrib>
        <contrib contrib-type="author" corresp="no" rid="aff10">
          <name><surname>Romero Palacios</surname><given-names>Alberto</given-names></name>
          
        </contrib>
        <contrib contrib-type="author" corresp="no" rid="aff11">
          <name><surname>Sobrino</surname><given-names>Beatriz</given-names></name>
          
        </contrib>
        <contrib contrib-type="author" corresp="no" rid="aff1 aff2">
          <name><surname>Rodríguez-Baño</surname><given-names>Jesús</given-names></name>
          
        </contrib>
        <contrib contrib-type="author" corresp="yes" rid="aff1 aff2">
          <name><surname>del-Toro-López</surname><given-names>María-Dolores</given-names></name>
          <email>mdeltoro@us.es</email>
        <ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4935-8754</ext-link></contrib>
        <aff id="aff1"><label>1</label><institution>Unidad Clínica de Enfermedades Infecciosas y Microbiología, Hospital Universitario Virgen Macarena, Departamento de Medicina, Universidad de Sevilla, Instituto de Biomedicina de Sevilla (IBiS)/CSIC,  Seville, Spain</institution>
        </aff>
        <aff id="aff2"><label>2</label><institution>CIBERINFEC, Instituto de Salud Carlos III, Madrid, Spain</institution>
        </aff>
        <aff id="aff3"><label>3</label><institution>Unidad Clínica de Traumatología y Cirugía Ortopédica,  Hospital Universitario Virgen Macarena, Seville, Spain</institution>
        </aff>
        <aff id="aff4"><label>4</label><institution>Unidad Clínica de Enfermedades Infecciosas, Hospital Universitario Virgen del Rocío, Seville, Spain</institution>
        </aff>
        <aff id="aff5"><label>5</label><institution>Unidad Clínica de Enfermedades Infecciosas, Hospital Costa del Sol, Marbella, Malaga, Spain</institution>
        </aff>
        <aff id="aff6"><label>6</label><institution>Unidad Clínica de Enfermedades Infecciosas, Hospital Virgen de la Victoria, Malaga, Spain</institution>
        </aff>
        <aff id="aff7"><label>7</label><institution>Unidad Clínica de Enfermedades Infecciosas, Hospital de Valme, Sevilla, Spain</institution>
        </aff>
        <aff id="aff8"><label>8</label><institution>Servicio de Medicina Interna, Hospital Universitario Puerta del Mar, Cadiz, Spain</institution>
        </aff>
        <aff id="aff9"><label>9</label><institution>Unidad Clínica de Enfermedades Infecciosas, Hospital Reina Sofía, Cordoba, Spain</institution>
        </aff>
        <aff id="aff10"><label>10</label><institution>Unidad Clínica de Enfermedades Infecciosas, Hospital de Puerto Real, Puerto Real, Cadiz, Spain</institution>
        </aff>
        <aff id="aff11"><label>11</label><institution>Servicio de Enfermedades Infecciosas, Hospital Regional de Málaga, Malaga, Spain</institution>
        </aff>
      </contrib-group>
      <author-notes><corresp id="corr1">María-Dolores del-Toro-López (mdeltoro@us.es)</corresp></author-notes><pub-date><day>2</day><month>October</month><year>2026</year></pub-date>
      
      <volume>11</volume>
      <issue>5</issue>
      <fpage>591</fpage><lpage>599</lpage>
      <history>
        <date date-type="received"><day>28</day><month>June</month><year>2026</year></date>
           <date date-type="rev-recd"><day>10</day><month>September</month><year>2026</year></date>
           <date date-type="accepted"><day>17</day><month>September</month><year>2026</year></date>
      </history>
      <permissions>
        <copyright-statement>Copyright: © 2026 Giulia Zumbo et al.</copyright-statement>
        <copyright-year>2026</copyright-year>
      <license license-type="open-access"><license-p>This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License. To view a copy of this licence, visit <ext-link ext-link-type="uri" xlink:href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/</ext-link></license-p></license></permissions><self-uri xlink:href="https://jbji.copernicus.org/articles/11/591/2026/jbji-11-591-2026.html">This article is available from https://jbji.copernicus.org/articles/11/591/2026/jbji-11-591-2026.html</self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="https://jbji.copernicus.org/articles/11/591/2026/jbji-11-591-2026.pdf">The full text article is available as a PDF file from https://jbji.copernicus.org/articles/11/591/2026/jbji-11-591-2026.pdf</self-uri>
      <abstract><title>Abstract</title>

      <p id="d2e275">Appropriate estimation of the risk of failure after debridement, antibiotics, and implant retention (DAIR) may provide useful prognostic information in patients with prosthetic joint infection (PJI). We aimed to externally validate the Kidney, Liver, Index surgery, Cemented prosthesis, C-reactive protein (KLIC) score and to develop and internally validate a new prediction model based on variables available before DAIR. We conducted a retrospective multicentre cohort study using medical record data from  adults with PJI treated with DAIR across eight Spanish centres between 2006 and 2023, with a minimum 12-month follow-up. Predictors were analysed using a generalized linear mixed-effects model, with assessment of discrimination, calibration, and bootstrap internal validation. Among 224 patients, 121 (54 %) experienced DAIR failure. The final model retained revision prosthesis, Charlson Comorbidity Index <inline-formula><mml:math id="M1" display="inline"><mml:mo>≥</mml:mo></mml:math></inline-formula> 3, C-reactive protein <inline-formula><mml:math id="M2" display="inline"><mml:mo>&gt;</mml:mo></mml:math></inline-formula> 150 mg L<sup>−1</sup>, longer time from index arthroplasty to DAIR, and Gram-negative bacilli or polymicrobial infection. The model showed good discrimination (Areas under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC-ROC) 0.85; 95 % confidence interval (CI) 0.79–0.90) and satisfactory calibration; the optimism-corrected AUC-ROC was 0.83. The derived clinical score showed an AUC-ROC of 0.81 (95 % CI 0.75–0.87) and identified groups with observed failure rates of 25.5 %, 45.6 %, and 87.9 %. The KLIC score did not demonstrate discriminative ability beyond chance (AUC-ROC 0.53; 95 % CI 0.44–0.64). Excluding microbiological aetiology reduced discrimination to 0.81 for the multivariable model and 0.77 for the corresponding reduced score. The new model showed good discrimination and calibration in this cohort, but external validation in independent PJI-DAIR populations is required before clinical implementation can be recommended.</p>
  </abstract>
    </article-meta>
  </front>
<body>
      

      
<sec id="Ch1.S1" sec-type="intro">
  <label>1</label><title>Introduction</title>
      <p id="d2e315">Prosthetic joint infection (PJI) remains one of the most serious complications following arthroplasty, with a substantial impact on patient morbidity, functional outcomes, quality of life, and healthcare costs (Patel, 2023). The incidence of PJI within the first 2 years after primary arthroplasty ranges from 0.5 % to 2.3 % (Parel et al., 2025; MAC, 2020), increasing to 5.5 %–8.1 % and 6.2 %–8.4 % following revision total hip and total knee arthroplasty, respectively (Lenguerrand et al., 2019; Quinlan et al., 2020).</p>
      <p id="d2e318">Debridement, antibiotics, and implant retention (DAIR) is an established surgical strategy for selected patients with acute PJI, allowing preservation of the prosthesis. Improvements in surgical technique, including exchange of modular components, together with optimized antimicrobial therapy, have contributed to improved outcomes (Löwik et al., 2020; Rahardja et al., 2023). Nevertheless, reported failure rates remain highly variable, ranging from 7 % to 55 % (Sigmund et al., 2025), reflecting differences in patient characteristics, infection-related factors, treatment strategies, outcome definitions, and duration of follow-up (Abbaszadeh et al., 2025; Kristensen et al., 2025; Löwik et al., 2020; Rahardja et al., 2023).</p>
      <p id="d2e321">Accurate estimation of the risk of DAIR failure before surgery could therefore provide useful prognostic information when treatment strategies are being considered. In 2015, Tornero et al. developed the KLIC score (Kidney, Liver, Index surgery, Cemented prosthesis, C-reactive protein), a pragmatic prediction tool based on readily available preoperative variables (Tornero et al., 2015). Subsequent external validation studies, however, have shown inconsistent discrimination, with reported areas under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC-ROC) ranging from 0.53 to 0.76 (Bernaus et al., 2022; Jiménez-Garrido et al., 2018; Liukkonen et al., 2024; Löwik et al., 2018). A previous multicentre study involving our group identified predictors of treatment failure among patients with <italic>Staphylococcus aureus</italic> PJI, including a DAIR-specific multivariable model with good discrimination. However, its applicability was restricted to <italic>S. aureus</italic> infections, and the model incorporated treatment-related variables not necessarily available before DAIR (Espíndola et al., 2022).</p>
      <p id="d2e330">We therefore aimed to externally validate the KLIC score in a multicentre cohort of patients with PJI treated with DAIR and to develop and internally validate a new prediction model based on variables available before DAIR.</p>
</sec>
<sec id="Ch1.S2">
  <label>2</label><title>Methods</title>
<sec id="Ch1.S2.SS1">
  <label>2.1</label><title>Study design and population</title>
      <p id="d2e348">We conducted a retrospective, multicentre cohort study including adult patients (<inline-formula><mml:math id="M4" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mo>≥</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">18</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> years) diagnosed with PJI according to internationally accepted criteria (McNally et al., 2021) and treated with DAIR as the initial surgical strategy across eight participating Spanish centres between January 2006 and December 2023. This study was reported in accordance with the TRIPOD<inline-formula><mml:math id="M5" display="inline"><mml:mo>+</mml:mo></mml:math></inline-formula>AI 2024 reporting guideline (Collins et al., 2024), and the completed checklist is provided as Table S1 in the Supplement.</p>
      <p id="d2e368">The study was approved by the competent Research Ethics Committee (PR-PI0454-2012). A single favourable ethics opinion was valid for all participating centres within the Andalusian Public Health System. The approval covered retrospective data collection under the study protocol, which continued throughout the study period without requiring additional centre-specific approvals or protocol amendments. The requirement for informed consent was waived by the Ethics Committee owing to the retrospective nature of the study.</p>
</sec>
<sec id="Ch1.S2.SS2">
  <label>2.2</label><title>Data collection</title>
      <p id="d2e379">Demographic characteristics, comorbidities, laboratory parameters, surgical variables, and microbiological data available before DAIR were retrospectively collected from medical records using a previously established PJI database with standardized definitions. Comorbidity burden was assessed using the Charlson Comorbidity Index (CCI). Time to DAIR was defined as the interval, in days, from the index arthroplasty to the DAIR procedure.</p>
</sec>
<sec id="Ch1.S2.SS3">
  <label>2.3</label><title>Outcome definition and follow-up</title>
      <p id="d2e390">The primary outcome was DAIR failure, defined as the occurrence of at least one of the following during follow-up: (1) persistence or recurrence of signs or symptoms of infection, (2) requirement for further revision surgery (implant exchange or removal), (3) need for long-term suppressive antimicrobial therapy, or (4) infection-related mortality.</p>
      <p id="d2e393">Patients were followed for a minimum of 12 months after DAIR or until confirmed treatment failure.</p>
</sec>
<sec id="Ch1.S2.SS4">
  <label>2.4</label><title>Statistical analysis</title>
      <p id="d2e404">Continuous variables were summarized as mean with standard deviation (SD) or medians with interquartile ranges (IQRs), as appropriate, and categorical variables as counts and percentages. Comparisons between groups were performed using the Student's <inline-formula><mml:math id="M6" display="inline"><mml:mi>t</mml:mi></mml:math></inline-formula> test or Mann–Whitney <inline-formula><mml:math id="M7" display="inline"><mml:mi>U</mml:mi></mml:math></inline-formula> test for continuous variables and the <inline-formula><mml:math id="M8" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:msup><mml:mi mathvariant="italic">χ</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msup></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> test or Fisher's exact test for categorical variables, as appropriate. Continuous predictors were initially evaluated in their original form and, where appropriate, alternative parameterizations, including clinically relevant categorizations, were explored. CCI was initially evaluated continuously; alternative cut-points were subsequently assessed according to the distribution of failure, strength of association, and model discrimination, with CCI <inline-formula><mml:math id="M9" display="inline"><mml:mo>≥</mml:mo></mml:math></inline-formula> 3 providing the best predictive performance. Alternative C-reactive protein (CRP) cut-points were similarly explored; <inline-formula><mml:math id="M10" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mo>&gt;</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">150</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> mg L<sup>−1</sup>, a threshold previously associated with DAIR failure (Wouthuyzen-Bakker et al., 2019), provided the best predictive contribution and was retained. Time from index arthroplasty to DAIR was retained as a continuous variable.</p>
      <p id="d2e462">Variables associated with DAIR failure in univariable analysis (<inline-formula><mml:math id="M12" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mi>p</mml:mi><mml:mo>&lt;</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">0.10</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>), together with variables considered clinically relevant based on prior evidence, were considered for multivariable modelling. A generalized linear mixed-effects model with a logit link and hospital as a random intercept was used to account for clustering by centre. Adjusted odds ratios (ORs) with 95 % confidence intervals (CIs) were reported. The primary model was fitted using complete cases.</p>
      <p id="d2e477">Missing data were almost exclusively restricted to CRP (38 patients), with one additional missing CCI value. To assess the robustness of the complete-case analysis, multiple imputation by chained equations was performed (<inline-formula><mml:math id="M13" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mi>m</mml:mi><mml:mo>=</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">40</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>). Continuous CRP values were imputed before applying the 150 mg L<sup>−1</sup> threshold. The imputation model included the outcome, predictors included in the final model, calendar period, and hospital. The final mixed-effects model was refitted in each imputed dataset, and estimates were pooled using Rubin's rules.</p>
      <p id="d2e504">Model discrimination was evaluated using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC-ROC). Calibration was assessed using a calibration plot comparing predicted and observed probabilities across risk deciles and the Hosmer–Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test. Internal validation was performed using 1000 bootstrap resamples. In each resample, the mixed-effects model was refitted, and its performance was evaluated in both the bootstrap sample and the original dataset. Mean optimism across resamples was used to obtain optimism-corrected estimates of discrimination and calibration.</p>
      <p id="d2e508">A clinical risk score was derived from the fixed-effect regression coefficients (<inline-formula><mml:math id="M15" display="inline"><mml:mi mathvariant="italic">β</mml:mi></mml:math></inline-formula>) of the final model. The coefficient for time to DAIR (<inline-formula><mml:math id="M16" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mi mathvariant="italic">β</mml:mi><mml:mo>=</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">0.014</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> d<sup>−1</sup>) was used as the scaling reference. Half of this coefficient (0.007) was assigned 0.01 score units, and each coefficient was transformed as <inline-formula><mml:math id="M18" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mo>(</mml:mo><mml:mi mathvariant="italic">β</mml:mi><mml:mo>/</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">0.007</mml:mn><mml:mo>)</mml:mo><mml:mo>×</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">0.01</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>. Categorical weights were rounded to the nearest 0.5 point. To facilitate clinical calculation, all weights were subsequently rescaled by a factor of 2, yielding 3 points for revision prosthesis, 5 points for CCI <inline-formula><mml:math id="M19" display="inline"><mml:mo>≥</mml:mo></mml:math></inline-formula> 3, 4 points for CRP <inline-formula><mml:math id="M20" display="inline"><mml:mo>&gt;</mml:mo></mml:math></inline-formula> 150 mg L<sup>−1</sup>, 4 points for Gram-negative bacilli or polymicrobial infection, and days to DAIR/25 points (1 point per 25 d to DAIR). Thus, the final score was calculated as 3 (revision prosthesis) <inline-formula><mml:math id="M22" display="inline"><mml:mo>+</mml:mo></mml:math></inline-formula> 5 (CCI <inline-formula><mml:math id="M23" display="inline"><mml:mo>≥</mml:mo></mml:math></inline-formula> 3) <inline-formula><mml:math id="M24" display="inline"><mml:mo>+</mml:mo></mml:math></inline-formula> 4 (CRP <inline-formula><mml:math id="M25" display="inline"><mml:mo>&gt;</mml:mo></mml:math></inline-formula> 150 mg L<sup>−1</sup>) <inline-formula><mml:math id="M27" display="inline"><mml:mo>+</mml:mo></mml:math></inline-formula> (Gram-negative <inline-formula><mml:math id="M28" display="inline"><mml:mo>/</mml:mo></mml:math></inline-formula> polymicrobial infection) <inline-formula><mml:math id="M29" display="inline"><mml:mo>+</mml:mo></mml:math></inline-formula> days to DAIR <inline-formula><mml:math id="M30" display="inline"><mml:mo>/</mml:mo></mml:math></inline-formula> 25.</p>
      <p id="d2e658">Risk categories were empirically defined from observed failure rates across increasing score values as low risk (<inline-formula><mml:math id="M31" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mo>≤</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">4</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>), intermediate risk (<inline-formula><mml:math id="M32" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mo>&gt;</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">4</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> to <inline-formula><mml:math id="M33" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mo>&lt;</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">8</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>), and high risk (<inline-formula><mml:math id="M34" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mo>≥</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">8</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>). Because these thresholds were derived in the development cohort, they were considered exploratory.</p>
      <p id="d2e701">Several sensitivity analyses were performed. First, calendar period (2006–2014 vs 2015–2023) was added as a fixed effect to the final model to assess potential temporal heterogeneity. Second, the model was refitted with Gram-negative bacilli and polymicrobial infection entered as separate predictors. Third, microbiological aetiology was excluded, and a corresponding reduced clinical score was derived using the same weighting procedure. Finally, the multiple-imputation analysis described above was used to assess the impact of missing data.</p>
      <p id="d2e704">KLIC scores were calculated according to the original published algorithm. The discriminative performance of the derived clinical scores and the KLIC score was assessed in the same cohort using AUC-ROC without hospital-level adjustment, allowing direct comparison of score performance.</p>
      <p id="d2e707">Calibration, internal validation by bootstrap resampling, and multiple imputation by chained equations were performed in R (R Foundation for Statistical Computing, Vienna, Austria); all other statistical analyses were performed using SPSS Statistics version 29.0 (IBM Corp., Armonk, NY, USA). A two-sided <inline-formula><mml:math id="M35" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mi>p</mml:mi><mml:mo>&lt;</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">0.05</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> was considered statistically significant.</p>
</sec>
<sec id="Ch1.S2.SS5">
  <label>2.5</label><title>Sample size and data use</title>
      <p id="d2e731">No formal a priori sample-size calculation was performed; all eligible patients identified during the study period were included. The full development dataset was used for model fitting without random partitioning into training and test sets; internal validation was performed by bootstrap resampling.</p>
</sec>
</sec>
<sec id="Ch1.S3">
  <label>3</label><title>Results</title>
<sec id="Ch1.S3.SS1">
  <label>3.1</label><title>Cohort characteristics and outcome</title>
      <p id="d2e750">A total of 224 patients from eight participating centres were included. The median age was 71 years (IQR 64–78), and 91 (40.6 %) were male. The most frequently identified pathogen was <italic>Staphylococcus aureus</italic> (<inline-formula><mml:math id="M36" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mi>n</mml:mi><mml:mo>=</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">65</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>, 29 %), followed by coagulase-negative staphylococci (<inline-formula><mml:math id="M37" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mi>n</mml:mi><mml:mo>=</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">42</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>, 18.8 %), Gram-negative bacilli (<inline-formula><mml:math id="M38" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mi>n</mml:mi><mml:mo>=</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">42</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>, 18.8 %), and polymicrobial infections (<inline-formula><mml:math id="M39" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mi>n</mml:mi><mml:mo>=</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">25</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>, 11.2 %). Overall, DAIR failure occurred in 121 patients (54.0 %). Median follow-up from DAIR was 657 d (IQR 381–852), corresponding to 21.6 months (IQR 12.5–28.0). Baseline characteristics are summarized in Table 1.</p>

<table-wrap id="T1"><label>Table 1</label><caption><p id="d2e807">Baseline characteristics of patients with postoperative PJI treated with DAIR.</p></caption><oasis:table frame="topbot"><oasis:tgroup cols="2">
     <oasis:colspec colnum="1" colname="col1" align="left"/>
     <oasis:colspec colnum="2" colname="col2" align="right"/>
     <oasis:thead>
       <oasis:row rowsep="1">
         <oasis:entry colname="col1">Variable</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col2">Total (<inline-formula><mml:math id="M40" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mi>N</mml:mi><mml:mo>=</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">224</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>)</oasis:entry>
       </oasis:row>
     </oasis:thead>
     <oasis:tbody>
       <oasis:row rowsep="1">
         <oasis:entry namest="col1" nameend="col2">Demographic and host-related characteristics </oasis:entry>
       </oasis:row>
       <oasis:row>
         <oasis:entry colname="col1">Male sex</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col2">91 (40.6)</oasis:entry>
       </oasis:row>
       <oasis:row>
         <oasis:entry colname="col1">Age (years), median (IQR)</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col2">71 (64–78)</oasis:entry>
       </oasis:row>
       <oasis:row>
         <oasis:entry colname="col1">Charlson Comorbidity Index, median (IQR)</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col2">1 (0–1)</oasis:entry>
       </oasis:row>
       <oasis:row rowsep="1">
         <oasis:entry colname="col1">Charlson Comorbidity Index <inline-formula><mml:math id="M41" display="inline"><mml:mo>≥</mml:mo></mml:math></inline-formula> 3, <inline-formula><mml:math id="M42" display="inline"><mml:mi>n</mml:mi></mml:math></inline-formula> (%)</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col2">23 (10.3)</oasis:entry>
       </oasis:row>
       <oasis:row rowsep="1">
         <oasis:entry namest="col1" nameend="col2">Laboratory parameters at diagnosis </oasis:entry>
       </oasis:row>
       <oasis:row>
         <oasis:entry colname="col1">Haemoglobin (g dL<sup>−1</sup>), median (IQR)</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col2">10.6 (9.5–11.6)</oasis:entry>
       </oasis:row>
       <oasis:row>
         <oasis:entry colname="col1">Leucocyte count (cell mm<sup>−3</sup>), median (IQR)</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col2">8470 (6500–11 450)</oasis:entry>
       </oasis:row>
       <oasis:row>
         <oasis:entry colname="col1">CRP (mg L<sup>−1</sup>), median (IQR)</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col2">75.5 (26–150)</oasis:entry>
       </oasis:row>
       <oasis:row rowsep="1">
         <oasis:entry colname="col1">CRP <inline-formula><mml:math id="M46" display="inline"><mml:mo>&gt;</mml:mo></mml:math></inline-formula> 150 mg L<sup>−1</sup></oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col2">46/186 (24.7)</oasis:entry>
       </oasis:row>
       <oasis:row rowsep="1">
         <oasis:entry namest="col1" nameend="col2">Surgical characteristics </oasis:entry>
       </oasis:row>
       <oasis:row>
         <oasis:entry colname="col1">Fracture as indication of arthroplasty</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col2">60 (26.8)</oasis:entry>
       </oasis:row>
       <oasis:row>
         <oasis:entry colname="col1">Hip PJI</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col2">117 (52.3)</oasis:entry>
       </oasis:row>
       <oasis:row>
         <oasis:entry colname="col1">Revision prosthesis</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col2">71 (31.7)</oasis:entry>
       </oasis:row>
       <oasis:row>
         <oasis:entry colname="col1">Cemented prosthesis</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col2">142/190 (74.7)</oasis:entry>
       </oasis:row>
       <oasis:row>
         <oasis:entry colname="col1">Days to DAIR, median (IQR)</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col2">36 (22–65)</oasis:entry>
       </oasis:row>
       <oasis:row rowsep="1">
         <oasis:entry colname="col1">Follow-up from DAIR in days, median (IQR)</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col2">657 (381–852)</oasis:entry>
       </oasis:row>
       <oasis:row rowsep="1">
         <oasis:entry namest="col1" nameend="col2">Microbiological features </oasis:entry>
       </oasis:row>
       <oasis:row rowsep="1">
         <oasis:entry colname="col1">Bacteraemia at PJI diagnosis</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col2">17/221 (7.7)</oasis:entry>
       </oasis:row>
       <oasis:row rowsep="1">
         <oasis:entry namest="col1" nameend="col2">Aetiology </oasis:entry>
       </oasis:row>
       <oasis:row>
         <oasis:entry colname="col1">Negative cultures</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col2">22 (9.8)</oasis:entry>
       </oasis:row>
       <oasis:row>
         <oasis:entry colname="col1"><italic>Staphylococcus aureus</italic></oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col2">65 (29)</oasis:entry>
       </oasis:row>
       <oasis:row>
         <oasis:entry colname="col1">Coagulase-negative staphylococci</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col2">42 (18.8)</oasis:entry>
       </oasis:row>
       <oasis:row>
         <oasis:entry colname="col1"><italic>Streptococcus/Enterococcus</italic> spp.</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col2">18 (8)</oasis:entry>
       </oasis:row>
       <oasis:row>
         <oasis:entry colname="col1">Gram-negative bacilli</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col2">42 (18.8)</oasis:entry>
       </oasis:row>
       <oasis:row>
         <oasis:entry colname="col1">Polymicrobial</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col2">25 (11.2)</oasis:entry>
       </oasis:row>
       <oasis:row>
         <oasis:entry colname="col1">Anaerobes</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col2">6 (2.7)</oasis:entry>
       </oasis:row>
       <oasis:row rowsep="1">
         <oasis:entry colname="col1">Others</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col2">4 (1.8)</oasis:entry>
       </oasis:row>
       <oasis:row rowsep="1">
         <oasis:entry namest="col1" nameend="col2">Outcome </oasis:entry>
       </oasis:row>
       <oasis:row>
         <oasis:entry colname="col1">DAIR failure</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col2">121 (54 %)</oasis:entry>
       </oasis:row>
     </oasis:tbody>
   </oasis:tgroup></oasis:table><table-wrap-foot><p id="d2e810">Data are presented as number (percentage) unless otherwise indicated. Denominators vary due to missing data and are indicated where applicable. CRP: C-reactive protein; PJI: prosthetic joint infection; DAIR: debridement, antibiotics, and implant retention.</p></table-wrap-foot></table-wrap>

</sec>
<sec id="Ch1.S3.SS2">
  <label>3.2</label><title>Univariable analysis</title>
      <p id="d2e1186">In univariable analysis, CCI <inline-formula><mml:math id="M48" display="inline"><mml:mo>≥</mml:mo></mml:math></inline-formula> 3, CRP <inline-formula><mml:math id="M49" display="inline"><mml:mo>&gt;</mml:mo></mml:math></inline-formula> 150 mg L<sup>−1</sup>, revision prosthesis, and longer time from index arthroplasty to DAIR were associated with DAIR failure (Table 2). Gram-negative bacilli and polymicrobial infections showed higher observed failure rates (66.7 % and 68.0 %, respectively), although the individual associations did not reach statistical significance.</p>

<table-wrap id="T2" specific-use="star"><label>Table 2</label><caption><p id="d2e1218">Univariable analysis of factors associated with DAIR failure.</p></caption><oasis:table frame="topbot"><oasis:tgroup cols="5">
     <oasis:colspec colnum="1" colname="col1" align="left"/>
     <oasis:colspec colnum="2" colname="col2" align="right"/>
     <oasis:colspec colnum="3" colname="col3" align="right"/>
     <oasis:colspec colnum="4" colname="col4" align="right"/>
     <oasis:colspec colnum="5" colname="col5" align="right"/>
     <oasis:thead>
       <oasis:row rowsep="1">
         <oasis:entry namest="col1" nameend="col5" align="center">Categorical variables </oasis:entry>
       </oasis:row>
     </oasis:thead>
     <oasis:tbody>
       <oasis:row rowsep="1">
         <oasis:entry colname="col1"/>
         <oasis:entry colname="col2">Failure <inline-formula><mml:math id="M51" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mi>n</mml:mi><mml:mo>/</mml:mo><mml:mi>N</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> (%)</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col3">No failure <inline-formula><mml:math id="M52" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mi>n</mml:mi><mml:mo>/</mml:mo><mml:mi>N</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> (%)</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col4">OR (95 % CI)</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col5"><inline-formula><mml:math id="M53" display="inline"><mml:mi>p</mml:mi></mml:math></inline-formula> value</oasis:entry>
       </oasis:row>
       <oasis:row>
         <oasis:entry colname="col1">Male sex</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col2"><inline-formula><mml:math id="M54" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">52</mml:mn><mml:mo>/</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">91</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> (57.1)</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col3"><inline-formula><mml:math id="M55" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">39</mml:mn><mml:mo>/</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">91</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> (42.9)</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col4">0.80 (0.5–1.4)</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col5">0.438</oasis:entry>
       </oasis:row>
       <oasis:row>
         <oasis:entry colname="col1">Charlson Comorbidity Index <inline-formula><mml:math id="M56" display="inline"><mml:mo>≥</mml:mo></mml:math></inline-formula> 3</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col2"><inline-formula><mml:math id="M57" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">18</mml:mn><mml:mo>/</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">23</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> (78.3)</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col3"><inline-formula><mml:math id="M58" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">5</mml:mn><mml:mo>/</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">23</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> (21.7)</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col4">3.39 (1.2–9.5)</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col5">0.015</oasis:entry>
       </oasis:row>
       <oasis:row>
         <oasis:entry colname="col1">CRP <inline-formula><mml:math id="M59" display="inline"><mml:mo>&gt;</mml:mo></mml:math></inline-formula> 150 mg L<sup>−1</sup></oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col2"><inline-formula><mml:math id="M61" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">32</mml:mn><mml:mo>/</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">46</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> (69.6)</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col3"><inline-formula><mml:math id="M62" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">14</mml:mn><mml:mo>/</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">46</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> (30.4)</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col4">2.29 (1.1–4.6)</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col5">0.021</oasis:entry>
       </oasis:row>
       <oasis:row>
         <oasis:entry colname="col1">Bacteraemia</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col2"><inline-formula><mml:math id="M63" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">12</mml:mn><mml:mo>/</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">17</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> (70.6)</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col3"><inline-formula><mml:math id="M64" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">5</mml:mn><mml:mo>/</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">17</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> (29.4)</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col4">2.13 (0.7–6.3)</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col5">0.161</oasis:entry>
       </oasis:row>
       <oasis:row>
         <oasis:entry colname="col1">Fracture indication</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col2"><inline-formula><mml:math id="M65" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">31</mml:mn><mml:mo>/</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">60</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> (51.7)</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col3"><inline-formula><mml:math id="M66" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">29</mml:mn><mml:mo>/</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">60</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> (48.3)</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col4">0.88 (0.5–1.6)</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col5">0.669</oasis:entry>
       </oasis:row>
       <oasis:row>
         <oasis:entry colname="col1">Revision prosthesis</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col2"><inline-formula><mml:math id="M67" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">51</mml:mn><mml:mo>/</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">71</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> (71.8)</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col3"><inline-formula><mml:math id="M68" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">20</mml:mn><mml:mo>/</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">71</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> (28.2)</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col4">3.02 (1.6–5.5)</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col5"><inline-formula><mml:math id="M69" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mo>&lt;</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">0.001</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula></oasis:entry>
       </oasis:row>
       <oasis:row>
         <oasis:entry colname="col1">Cemented prosthesis</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col2"><inline-formula><mml:math id="M70" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">75</mml:mn><mml:mo>/</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">142</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> (52.8)</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col3"><inline-formula><mml:math id="M71" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">67</mml:mn><mml:mo>/</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">142</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> (47.2)</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col4">0.67 (0.3–1.3)</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col5">0.243</oasis:entry>
       </oasis:row>
       <oasis:row>
         <oasis:entry colname="col1">Hip PJI</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col2"><inline-formula><mml:math id="M72" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">67</mml:mn><mml:mo>/</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">117</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> (57.3)</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col3"><inline-formula><mml:math id="M73" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">50</mml:mn><mml:mo>/</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">117</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> (42.7)</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col4">1.34 (0.8–2.3)</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col5">0.277</oasis:entry>
       </oasis:row>
       <oasis:row>
         <oasis:entry colname="col1">Gram-negative infection</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col2"><inline-formula><mml:math id="M74" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">28</mml:mn><mml:mo>/</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">42</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> (66.7)</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col3"><inline-formula><mml:math id="M75" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">14</mml:mn><mml:mo>/</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">42</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> (33.3)</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col4">1.90 (0.9–3.9)</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col5">0.068</oasis:entry>
       </oasis:row>
       <oasis:row rowsep="1">
         <oasis:entry colname="col1">Polymicrobial infection</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col2"><inline-formula><mml:math id="M76" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">17</mml:mn><mml:mo>/</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">25</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> (68.0)</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col3"><inline-formula><mml:math id="M77" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">8</mml:mn><mml:mo>/</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">25</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> (32.0)</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col4">1.90 (0.8–4.7)</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col5">0.137</oasis:entry>
       </oasis:row>
       <oasis:row rowsep="1">
         <oasis:entry namest="col1" nameend="col5" align="center">Continuous variables </oasis:entry>
       </oasis:row>
       <oasis:row rowsep="1">
         <oasis:entry colname="col1"/>
         <oasis:entry colname="col2">Failure median (IQR)</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col3">No failure median (IQR)</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col4"><inline-formula><mml:math id="M78" display="inline"><mml:mi>p</mml:mi></mml:math></inline-formula> value</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col5"/>
       </oasis:row>
       <oasis:row>
         <oasis:entry colname="col1">Age (years)</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col2">70 (63–79)</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col3">70 (65–77)</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col4">0.545</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col5"/>
       </oasis:row>
       <oasis:row>
         <oasis:entry colname="col1">Charlson Comorbidity Index</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col2">1 (0–1)</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col3">1 (0–1)</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col4">0.098</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col5"/>
       </oasis:row>
       <oasis:row>
         <oasis:entry colname="col1">Haemoglobin (g dL<sup>−1</sup>)</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col2">10.5 (9.4–11.6)</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col3">10.6 (9.5–11.6)</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col4">0.457</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col5"/>
       </oasis:row>
       <oasis:row>
         <oasis:entry colname="col1">Leucocyte count (cell mm<sup>−3</sup>)</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col2">8250 (6420–11 570)</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col3">8780 (6503–12 615)</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col4">0.920</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col5"/>
       </oasis:row>
       <oasis:row>
         <oasis:entry colname="col1">CRP (mg L<sup>−1</sup>)</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col2">77.5 (27–187)</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col3">61.5 (23–133)</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col4">0.023</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col5"/>
       </oasis:row>
       <oasis:row>
         <oasis:entry colname="col1">Time from index arthroplasty to DAIR (days)</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col2">43 (27–208)</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col3">31 (20–39)</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col4"><inline-formula><mml:math id="M82" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mo>&lt;</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">0.001</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula></oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col5"/>
       </oasis:row>
     </oasis:tbody>
   </oasis:tgroup></oasis:table><table-wrap-foot><p id="d2e1221">Denominators vary due to missing data and are shown where applicable. CRP: C-reactive protein; DAIR: debridement, antibiotics, and implant retention.</p></table-wrap-foot></table-wrap>

</sec>
<sec id="Ch1.S3.SS3">
  <label>3.3</label><title>Primary multivariable model</title>
      <p id="d2e1917">The primary multivariable analysis included 185 patients (82.6 %) with complete data and 102 failure events. After accounting for hospital-level clustering, the final model retained revision prosthesis (OR 2.64; 95 % CI 1.20–5.81; <inline-formula><mml:math id="M83" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mi>p</mml:mi><mml:mo>=</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">0.017</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>), CCI <inline-formula><mml:math id="M84" display="inline"><mml:mo>≥</mml:mo></mml:math></inline-formula> 3 (19/185 patients; OR 5.15; 95 % CI 1.25–21.22; <inline-formula><mml:math id="M85" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mi>p</mml:mi><mml:mo>=</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">0.024</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>), CRP <inline-formula><mml:math id="M86" display="inline"><mml:mo>&gt;</mml:mo></mml:math></inline-formula> 150 mg L<sup>−1</sup> (OR 4.81; 95 % CI 1.98–11.67; <inline-formula><mml:math id="M88" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mi>p</mml:mi><mml:mo>&lt;</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">0.001</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>), longer time from index arthroplasty to DAIR (per day increase; OR 1.01; 95 % CI 1.01–1.02; <inline-formula><mml:math id="M89" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mi>p</mml:mi><mml:mo>=</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">0.001</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>), and Gram-negative bacilli or polymicrobial infection (OR 4.03; 95 % CI 1.77–9.19; <inline-formula><mml:math id="M90" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mi>p</mml:mi><mml:mo>=</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">0.001</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>) (Table 3).</p>

<table-wrap id="T3" specific-use="star"><label>Table 3</label><caption><p id="d2e2010">Multivariable analysis of factors associated with DAIR failure and derived clinical score.</p></caption><oasis:table frame="topbot"><oasis:tgroup cols="6">
     <oasis:colspec colnum="1" colname="col1" align="left"/>
     <oasis:colspec colnum="2" colname="col2" align="center"/>
     <oasis:colspec colnum="3" colname="col3" align="center"/>
     <oasis:colspec colnum="4" colname="col4" align="right"/>
     <oasis:colspec colnum="5" colname="col5" align="right"/>
     <oasis:colspec colnum="6" colname="col6" align="left"/>
     <oasis:thead>
       <oasis:row>
         <oasis:entry colname="col1">Variable</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col2"><inline-formula><mml:math id="M92" display="inline"><mml:mi mathvariant="italic">β</mml:mi></mml:math></inline-formula></oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col3">Odds</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col4">95 % CI</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col5"><inline-formula><mml:math id="M93" display="inline"><mml:mi>p</mml:mi></mml:math></inline-formula> value</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col6">Score</oasis:entry>
       </oasis:row>
       <oasis:row rowsep="1">
         <oasis:entry colname="col1"/>
         <oasis:entry colname="col2">coefficient</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col3">ratio</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col4"/>
         <oasis:entry colname="col5"/>
         <oasis:entry colname="col6"/>
       </oasis:row>
     </oasis:thead>
     <oasis:tbody>
       <oasis:row>
         <oasis:entry colname="col1">Revision prosthesis</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col2">0.970</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col3">2.64</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col4">1.20–5.81</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col5">0.017</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col6">3</oasis:entry>
       </oasis:row>
       <oasis:row>
         <oasis:entry colname="col1">Charlson Comorbidity Index <inline-formula><mml:math id="M94" display="inline"><mml:mo>≥</mml:mo></mml:math></inline-formula> 3</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col2">1.638</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col3">5.15</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col4">1.25–21.22</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col5">0.024</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col6">5</oasis:entry>
       </oasis:row>
       <oasis:row>
         <oasis:entry colname="col1">CRP <inline-formula><mml:math id="M95" display="inline"><mml:mo>&gt;</mml:mo></mml:math></inline-formula> 150 mg L<sup>−1</sup></oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col2">1.570</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col3">4.81</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col4">1.98–11.67</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col5"><inline-formula><mml:math id="M97" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mo>&lt;</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">0.001</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula></oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col6">4</oasis:entry>
       </oasis:row>
       <oasis:row>
         <oasis:entry colname="col1">Time from index arthroplasty to DAIR, d<sup>−1</sup></oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col2">0.014</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col3">1.01</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col4">1.01–1.02</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col5">0.001</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col6">days/25 (0.04 d<sup>−1</sup>)</oasis:entry>
       </oasis:row>
       <oasis:row>
         <oasis:entry colname="col1">Gram-negative bacilli or polymicrobial infection</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col2">1.393</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col3">4.03</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col4">1.77–9.19</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col5">0.001</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col6">4</oasis:entry>
       </oasis:row>
     </oasis:tbody>
   </oasis:tgroup></oasis:table><table-wrap-foot><p id="d2e2013">CCI <inline-formula><mml:math id="M91" display="inline"><mml:mo>≥</mml:mo></mml:math></inline-formula> 3 was present in 19/185 (10.3 %) patients included in the complete-case analysis (23/224 (10.3 %)) in the overall cohort). The final model included five predictors and 102 failure events. CRP: C-reactive protein; DAIR: debridement, antibiotics, and implant retention.</p></table-wrap-foot></table-wrap>

</sec>
<sec id="Ch1.S3.SS4">
  <label>3.4</label><title>Model performance and internal validation</title>
      <p id="d2e2272">The final mixed-effects model showed good discrimination, with an AUC-ROC of 0.85 (95 % CI 0.79–0.90) (Fig. 1A). Visual assessment of the calibration plot showed satisfactory agreement between predicted and observed probabilities (Fig. 1B), and the Hosmer–Lemeshow test showed no evidence of lack of fit (<inline-formula><mml:math id="M100" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mi>p</mml:mi><mml:mo>=</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">0.53</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>). Bootstrap internal validation showed limited optimism, with an optimism-corrected AUC-ROC of 0.83 compared with an apparent AUC-ROC of 0.85, and an optimism-corrected calibration slope of 0.91.</p>

      <fig id="F1" specific-use="star"><label>Figure 1</label><caption><p id="d2e2289">Performance of the multivariable prediction model. <bold>(A)</bold> Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve showing model discrimination (AUC-ROC 0.85; 95 % CI 0.79–0.90). <bold>(B)</bold> Calibration plot comparing predicted and observed probabilities of DAIR failure across deciles of predicted risk.</p></caption>
          <graphic xlink:href="https://jbji.copernicus.org/articles/11/591/2026/jbji-11-591-2026-f01.png"/>

        </fig>

</sec>
<sec id="Ch1.S3.SS5">
  <label>3.5</label><title>Derived clinical score and KLIC</title>
      <p id="d2e2313">The derived clinical score yielded an AUC-ROC of 0.81 (95 % CI 0.75–0.87). In contrast, the KLIC score did not demonstrate discriminative ability beyond chance in this cohort (AUC-ROC 0.53; 95 % CI 0.44–0.64) (Fig. 2).</p>

      <fig id="F2"><label>Figure 2</label><caption><p id="d2e2318">Discriminative performance of the derived clinical score and KLIC score. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves showing an AUC of 0.81 (95 % CI 0.75–0.87) for the derived clinical score (solid line) and 0.53 (95 % CI 0.44–0.64) for the KLIC score (dashed line).</p></caption>
          <graphic xlink:href="https://jbji.copernicus.org/articles/11/591/2026/jbji-11-591-2026-f02.png"/>

        </fig>

</sec>
<sec id="Ch1.S3.SS6">
  <label>3.6</label><title>Risk stratification</title>
      <p id="d2e2335">Using the empirically derived thresholds, observed failure rates were 25.5 % (13/51; 95 % CI 15.0 %–38.6 %) in the low-risk group (score <inline-formula><mml:math id="M101" display="inline"><mml:mo>≤</mml:mo></mml:math></inline-formula> 4), 45.6 % (31/68; 95 % CI 34.0 %–57.4 %) in the intermediate-risk group (<inline-formula><mml:math id="M102" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mo>&gt;</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">4</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> to <inline-formula><mml:math id="M103" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mo>&lt;</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">8</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>), and 87.9 % (58/66; 95 % CI 78.0 %–94.1 %) in the high-risk group (<inline-formula><mml:math id="M104" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mo>≥</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">8</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>) (<inline-formula><mml:math id="M105" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mi>p</mml:mi><mml:mo>&lt;</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">0.001</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>) (Fig. 3).</p>

      <fig id="F3"><label>Figure 3</label><caption><p id="d2e2389">Observed DAIR failure across derived clinical score categories. Failure rates were 25.5 % (13/51; 95 % CI 15.0 %–38.6 %) in the low-risk group (score <inline-formula><mml:math id="M106" display="inline"><mml:mo>≤</mml:mo></mml:math></inline-formula> 4), 45.6 % (31/68; 95 % CI 34.0 %–57.4 %) in the intermediate-risk group (<inline-formula><mml:math id="M107" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mo>&gt;</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">4</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> to <inline-formula><mml:math id="M108" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mo>&lt;</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">8</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>), and 87.9 % (58/66; 95 % CI 78.0 %–94.1 %) in the high-risk group (<inline-formula><mml:math id="M109" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mo>≥</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">8</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>) (<inline-formula><mml:math id="M110" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mi>p</mml:mi><mml:mo>&lt;</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">0.001</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>). Thresholds were empirically derived in the development cohort.</p></caption>
          <graphic xlink:href="https://jbji.copernicus.org/articles/11/591/2026/jbji-11-591-2026-f03.png"/>

        </fig>

</sec>
<sec id="Ch1.S3.SS7">
  <label>3.7</label><title>Sensitivity analyses</title>
      <p id="d2e2455">Sensitivity analyses supported the primary findings. Multiple imputation of missing predictor data yielded estimates of similar direction and magnitude, with all five predictors remaining statistically significant (Table S2). Failure rates were similar in 2006–2014 and 2015–2023 (53.3 % vs 57.5 %; <inline-formula><mml:math id="M111" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mi>p</mml:mi><mml:mo>=</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">0.63</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>). Adjustment for calendar period showed no association between recruitment era and failure (2015–2023 vs 2006–2014: OR 1.33, 95 % CI 0.52–3.39; <inline-formula><mml:math id="M112" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mi>p</mml:mi><mml:mo>=</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">0.549</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>) and did not materially alter the remaining predictor estimates (Table S3). When Gram-negative bacilli and polymicrobial infection were entered separately, both associations remained in the same direction (OR 2.58, 95 % CI 1.07–6.20 and OR 2.91, 95 % CI 0.85–9.92, respectively) (Table S4).</p>
      <p id="d2e2482">Excluding microbiological aetiology reduced discrimination to an AUC-ROC of 0.81 (95 % CI 0.74–0.87) for the multivariable model and 0.77 (95 % CI 0.71–0.84) for the corresponding reduced clinical score (Fig. S1 in the Supplement).</p>
</sec>
</sec>
<sec id="Ch1.S4">
  <label>4</label><title>Discussion</title>
      <p id="d2e2495">In this multicentre cohort of patients with PJI treated with DAIR, the KLIC score did not demonstrate discriminative ability beyond chance, in line with previous external validation studies (Bernaus et al., 2022; Liukkonen et al., 2024; Löwik et al., 2018). In contrast, the newly developed model showed  better discrimination in this cohort, with an AUC-ROC of 0.85 and satisfactory calibration. Internal validation suggested limited optimism, with an optimism-corrected AUC-ROC of 0.83 and a calibration slope of 0.91. The corresponding clinical score retained good discrimination (AUC-ROC 0.81) and identified groups with markedly different observed failure rates. These findings demonstrate prognostic information within this cohort but do not establish clinical utility, which requires external validation.</p>
      <p id="d2e2498">The lack of discrimination of the KLIC score in our cohort should not be interpreted as invalidating the original model but rather as highlighting limitations in its generalizability across different populations and outcome settings. KLIC was derived from 222 early postoperative PJIs collected between 1999 and 2014, and was designed to predict failure within 60 d after DAIR, with an observed failure rate of 23.4 % (Tornero et al., 2015). By contrast, our patients were followed for a minimum of 12 months after DAIR, with a median follow-up of 21.6 months, and the overall failure rate was 54 %. This longer outcome horizon allows the capture of relapses occurring after completion of antimicrobial therapy and may partly explain the difference in performance. Consistently, Liukkonen et al. (2024) reported similarly non-discriminatory performance of KLIC at 1 year (AUC 0.53).</p>
      <p id="d2e2501">Differences in the case mix may also contribute. Revision arthroplasty was more frequent in our cohort than in the KLIC derivation cohort (31.7 % vs 18.9 %), whereas coagulase-negative staphylococci (18.8 % vs 42.8 %) and polymicrobial infections (11.2 % vs 38.3 %) were less frequent (Tornero et al., 2015). Conversely, the proportion of cemented prostheses was almost identical (74.7 % vs 74.3 %), making cementation an unlikely explanation for the observed difference in performance. In addition, surgical and antimicrobial management of acute PJI has evolved since the period in which KLIC was developed. Taken together, these differences suggest that the performance of KLIC may depend on the similarity between the population and outcome horizon in which it is applied and those of its original derivation cohort.</p>
      <p id="d2e2504">The relatively high overall failure rate in our cohort should also be interpreted in this context. In addition to the minimum 12-month follow-up, our composite outcome classified the need for long-term suppressive antimicrobial therapy as failure. The multicentre design also incorporated a heterogeneous case mix. Differences in outcome definitions, duration of follow-up, patient selection, and centre-specific characteristics should therefore be considered when comparing DAIR success rates across studies.</p>
      <p id="d2e2508">The variables retained in the new model should be interpreted primarily as prognostic markers rather than causal determinants of DAIR failure. Their value lies in contributing information on the baseline probability of failure when DAIR is being considered; the present study cannot establish that modifying any individual predictor would alter the outcome. In particular, longer time from index arthroplasty to DAIR was associated with failure, consistent with previous studies (Davis et al., 2022; Espíndola et al., 2022), but this association should not be interpreted as evidence of a causal effect of treatment delay. This variable may also capture differences in clinical presentation, diagnostic complexity, referral pathways, or other influencing factors when DAIR is performed. Earlier intervention would therefore represent an actionable factor only when the delay itself is modifiable.</p>
      <p id="d2e2511">Comorbidity and CRP should be interpreted similarly. Although median CCI was low and identical in patients with and without failure, the association was concentrated among patients with CCI <inline-formula><mml:math id="M113" display="inline"><mml:mo>≥</mml:mo></mml:math></inline-formula> 3. This subgroup was small (23 patients overall and 19 in the complete-case model), resulting in a wide confidence interval around the effect estimate. Moreover, the <inline-formula><mml:math id="M114" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mo>≥</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">3</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> threshold was selected during model development after evaluating alternative parameterizations and therefore requires independent confirmation. CRP <inline-formula><mml:math id="M115" display="inline"><mml:mo>&gt;</mml:mo></mml:math></inline-formula> 150 mg L<sup>−1</sup> likewise provided prognostic information, and this threshold is supported by previous reports of DAIR outcomes (Wouthuyzen-Bakker et al., 2019); however, because alternative cut-points were explored in the present cohort, its predictive performance also requires external validation. These variables should be regarded as markers of baseline risk rather than as direct treatment targets.</p>
      <p id="d2e2550">Microbiological aetiology provided additional predictive information. Gram-negative bacilli and polymicrobial infections were combined in the primary model because both subgroups were relatively small and had similar observed failure rates. When analysed separately, their associations remained in the same direction and of comparable magnitude, arguing against the combined effect being driven solely by one category. Importantly, excluding microbiological aetiology reduced discrimination from 0.85 to 0.81 for the multivariable model and from 0.81 to 0.77 for the corresponding clinical score. Thus, microbiological information improves risk estimation when available before DAIR, although the remaining clinical variables retain predictive information when microbiological results are not yet available. These associations should again be interpreted prognostically rather than as evidence that a particular microorganism causally determines treatment failure.</p>
      <p id="d2e2553">This study has several strengths. It included patients from eight centres, used a mixed-effects modelling approach to account for centre-level clustering, assessed both discrimination and calibration, and incorporated bootstrap internal validation. Sensitivity analyses addressing missing data, calendar period, microbiological availability, and separation of Gram-negative and polymicrobial infections yielded results broadly consistent with the primary analysis. In particular, multiple imputation of missing predictor data produced estimates of similar direction and magnitude, and adjustment for calendar period did not materially alter the model.</p>
      <p id="d2e2556">Several limitations should nevertheless be acknowledged. First, the retrospective design may have introduced residual selection and information bias. Complete-case analysis excluded 39 patients, predominantly because of missing CRP values, although multiple-imputation sensitivity analysis supported the robustness of the primary estimates. Second, some predictor parameterizations, including CCI <inline-formula><mml:math id="M117" display="inline"><mml:mo>≥</mml:mo></mml:math></inline-formula> 3 and CRP <inline-formula><mml:math id="M118" display="inline"><mml:mo>&gt;</mml:mo></mml:math></inline-formula> 150 mg L<sup>−1</sup>, as well as the score risk thresholds, were selected within the development cohort and may therefore be optimistic. Third, despite bootstrap internal validation, the model has not undergone external validation, and its calibration and discrimination may differ in other populations. The study was not designed to assess differential model performance across sociodemographic groups; potential differences in model fairness should therefore be examined during external validation. Fourth, the long recruitment period encompassed changes in PJI diagnosis and treatment, although failure rates and model estimates were not materially affected by adjustment for calendar period. Finally, the cohort included only patients who underwent DAIR. The model therefore estimates the risk of failure conditional on DAIR being performed; it cannot determine whether patients classified as high risk would have better outcomes with prosthesis exchange or another surgical strategy, nor does it account for intraoperative or postoperative factors, including surgical quality and antimicrobial management, that may influence the outcome.</p>
      <p id="d2e2585">If externally validated, the model could complement clinical judgement by providing an estimate of baseline failure risk when DAIR is being considered. However, the observed risk strata should not currently be interpreted as treatment-selection thresholds, and the present data do not establish that alternative surgery would improve outcomes in patients classified as high risk. External validation in independent PJI-DAIR cohorts is required to assess reproducibility, calibration, and clinical utility before implementation can be recommended.</p>
</sec>
<sec id="Ch1.S5" sec-type="conclusions">
  <label>5</label><title>Conclusions</title>
      <p id="d2e2596">In this multicentre cohort of patients with PJI treated with DAIR, the KLIC score did not demonstrate discriminative ability beyond chance. A newly developed model based on variables available before DAIR showed good discrimination and calibration, with limited optimism on internal validation. The corresponding clinical score identified groups with different observed risks of failure. External validation in independent PJI-DAIR cohorts is required before clinical implementation can be recommended.</p>
</sec>

      
      </body>
    <back><notes notes-type="codedataavailability"><title>Code and data availability</title>

      <p id="d2e2603">The data underlying the findings of this study are available from the corresponding author upon reasonable request, subject to applicable data-protection regulations and institutional approval. The analytical code is available from the corresponding author upon reasonable request.</p>
  </notes><app-group>
        <supplementary-material position="anchor"><p id="d2e2606">The supplement related to this article is available online at <inline-supplementary-material xlink:href="https://doi.org/10.5194/jbji-11-591-2026-supplement" xlink:title="pdf">https://doi.org/10.5194/jbji-11-591-2026-supplement</inline-supplementary-material>.</p></supplementary-material>
        </app-group><notes notes-type="authorcontribution"><title>Author contributions</title>

      <p id="d2e2615">MDdT conceived the study and hypotheses, supervised the study, revised the paper, and approved the final refinements. GZ contributed to data collection, performed the analyses, drafted the paper, and revised it. IMA, JBF, INDdlB, JP, AdA, EN, JECD, FB, CN, ARP, and BS participated in data collection and approved the final version. JRB supervised the analyses and approved the final article.</p>
  </notes><notes notes-type="competinginterests"><title>Competing interests</title>

      <p id="d2e2621">The contact author has declared that none of the authors has any competing interests.</p>
  </notes><notes notes-type="specialsection"><title>Ethical statement</title>
    

      <p id="d2e2629">This retrospective multicentre study, conducted within the Andalusian Public Health System, was approved by the competent Ethics Committee under reference no. PR-PI0454-2012. Informed consent was waived due to the retrospective nature of the study. The study protocol is not publicly available. The study was not registered. Patients and members of the public were not involved in the design, conduct, reporting, or dissemination of this retrospective study.</p>
  </notes><notes notes-type="disclaimer"><title>Disclaimer</title>

      <p id="d2e2636">Publisher's note: Copernicus Publications remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims made in the text, published maps, institutional affiliations, or any other geographical representation in this paper. The authors bear the ultimate responsibility for providing appropriate place names. Views expressed in the text are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the publisher.</p>
  </notes><notes notes-type="reviewstatement"><title>Review statement</title>

      <p id="d2e2643">This paper was edited by Derek Amanatullah and reviewed by two anonymous referees.</p>
  </notes><ref-list>
    <title>References</title>

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    <!--<article-title-html>External validation of the KLIC score and development  of a novel prediction model for debridement, antibiotics, and implant retention failure in prosthetic joint  infection: a multicentre cohort study</article-title-html>
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